In 2022, despite the heat wave that touched many regions of the world, global wine production volume is expected to be at a level similar to the one observed last year. This would be the fourth consecutive year where the global production level can be considered as slightly below average.

Average production volume is expected in the EU, with positive performances recorded in Italy, France, and Germany, which balanced out the low harvests expected in Spain and Greece, which were particularly affected by the heat wave during summer. First harvest forecasts in the USA indicate that production volume will be slightly lower than in 2021. After the record-high figures of last year, Southern Hemisphere vineyards produced average volumes, with the only exception of New Zealand that, thanks to favourable climatic conditions, records the largest production ever.

Based on the information collected on twenty-nine countries, which represent 91% of the world production in 2021, 2022 world wine production (excluding juices and musts) is estimated between 257.5 and 262.3 mhl, with a mid-range estimate at 259.9 mhl. The 2022 wine production volume can be considered slightly below its 20-year average and seems to have fallen by 1% compared to 2021. This is due to higher than-expected harvest volume in Europe (despite the drought and heat waves during spring and summer) and average production level recorded in the Southern Hemisphere and in the USA. Overall, in 2022 the dry and hot conditions observed across different regions of the world have led to early harvests and average volumes, nonetheless an overall good quality is expected. As shown in figure 1, world wine production is stable around 260 mhl for four consecutive years. It should be noted, however, that the figures for 2022, must be taken with caution as there are still large countries like China and Russia for which information is not available yet. Also, the high volatility in production volumes observed over the last years at regional levels makes the forecasting exercise even more difficult. 

Northern hemisphere European Union In the European Union (EU), a series of adverse weather events - spring frost, hail, excess heat, and drought - have been observed all along the 2022 growing season. Spring and summer heatwaves across Europe have resulted in early ripening. At the beginning of the season, there was widespread concern among key stakeholders that yields were expected to be lower due to extreme heat and lack of rainfall in many areas. However, in the end, the absence of major grape diseases and late summer rains made up for it, resulting in higher yields than initially expected in several regions and countries. The result is an overall early harvest and an estimated wine production volume of 157 mhl, excluding juices and musts. This volume shows an annual increase of 3.5 mhl (+2%) compared to 2021. Overall, preliminary estimates for 2022 wine production in EU countries indicate quite a heterogeneous situation, due to different weather conditions throughout the year, undergone in different vine regions.

Notwithstanding the drought that hit certain regions, 2022 proved to be a favourable year for wine production in the two largest EU producing countries – Italy and France, which together account for 36% of the world and 60% of the EU wine production – mainly thanks to the rains at the end of the summer. Italy, still ranking first producer of the world at 50.3  mhl, estimates a volume in line with its 2021 wine production. France, after the very low vintage of 2021, characterised by severe damages due to early frost in April, followed by summer rain, hailstorms, and mildew, is the EU country with highest growth rate with respect to the previous year: it foresees a production level of 44.2 mhl, which represents +17% compared to 2021. Dry and hot weather this year reduced disease pressure on vines and lead to an early start of the grape harvest.

Spain in 2022 will be the third largest wine producer in the world with an estimated production of 33.0 mhl. This relatively low volume (-6% compared to 2021 and 12% lower than its five-year average) can be attributed to drought and limited access to water in many regions. Among the other major wine producing countries in the EU, positive performances with respect to 2021 have been recorded in Germany (8.9 mhl, +2% / 2021), Romania (4.6  mhl, +4% / 2021), Bulgaria (0.9  mhl, +5%  /  021), Slovenia (0.7 mhl, +15% / 2021), and Croatia (0.6 mhl, +12% / 2021). In these countries, the dry and hot growing season has been beneficial for vineyards, a large part of which have been very productive, despite the hot temperatures.

On the other hand, several countries within the EU expect a negative growth with respect to 2021. For example, Portugal, the fifth largest European wine producer, has an estimated 2022 wine production volume of 6.7 mhl (-8% / 2021). The harvest in Portugal, like in many other EU countries, has been hit by excessive heat during summer, coupled with little rainfall. However, it should be noted that the expected 2022 level is in line with its five-year average. Hungary’s estimated wine production is 2.5  mhl in 2022, a level 3% below 2021 and 15% lower than its five-year average. Also in this case, the extreme temperatures recorded in spring and summer lead to an early and relatively small harvest. Similarly, Austria, with 2.3  mhl, estimates a wine production that is 6% lower than 2021 and 8% lower than its five-year average. One of the countries that was hit harder by the heat wave this season is certainly Greece, where the expected wine production in 2022 is estimated at only 1.7  mhl. This represents not only a sharp fall with respect to the previous year (-29%) but also a steep decline compared to its fiveyear average. Lastly, Czech  Republic expects a wine production of 0.6 mhl, a level 8% lower than 2021 in line with its five-year average.

Figure 2 – Wine production in the EU27 (excluding juices and musts), 2000-2022

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The OIV is the intergovernmental organisation of a scientific and technical nature of recognised competence for its work concerning vines, wine, wine-based beverages, table grapes, raisins and other vine-based products. It is composed of 48 Member States.

In the framework of its competence, the objectives of the OIV are as follows: - to inform its members of measures whereby the concerns of producers, consumers and other players in the vine and wine products sector may be taken into consideration;

- to assist other international organisations, both intergovernmental and non-governmental, especially those that carry out standardisation activities;

- to contribute to international harmonisation of existing practices and standards and, as necessary, to the preparation of new international standards in order to improve the conditions for producing and marketing vine and wine products, and to help ensure that the interests of consumers are taken into account.

*Abbreviations: mhl: millions of hectolitres

Source: International Organisation of Vine and Wine Intergovernmental Organisation